Abe Resigns.

[sechan19]

It's all over the news here today that Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo has abruptly, and rather shockingly, announced his resignation from office. This came after crushing defeats in the parliamentary elections of July (where Abe's party was thoroughly routed) and months of pressure to step aside, which Abe had steadfastly ignored. His refusal to step down was one of the main factors in people being so shocked at his announcement.

However, in recent days tension over the Japanese involvement in the world's (i.e., the US's) anti-terrorist missions in Afghanistan became a hot-button issue that I may have caused Abe to rethink his position. Opposition parties were viewing a Japanese anti-terrorism law, which provides funding for a huge refueling mission of world military vessels in the Indian Ocean, as the means to bring Abe down. The law is set for reenactment in November, and many in the opposition party were determined to kill it (and by extension Abe's political career).

Now, the US really doesn't want that law killed. It's terrorism-policing policies in Afghanistan, and the help it receives from nations like Pakistan, rely on Japanese fuel. Given this, I greatly suspect Abe came under foreign pressure to resign, and that it was this foreign pressure that he succumbed to. Indeed, in his resignation speech, he made reference to the law and his desire that his resignation would depolarize the issue.

Abe was an interesting figure from the beginning. Far more nationalistic than practically any of his predecessors, he was spearheading a move toward greater Japanese autonomy and militarization that was viewed speculatively (to say the least) by neighboring Asian countries and Japanese citizens. Of course, the US also really wants Japan to become autonomous because it's tired of the burden of protection that must be extend to Japan as a consequence of its own ironic WWII-era insistence that Japan completely demilitarize.

It will be interesting to see what happens next, and interesting to know what the buzz is in Japan. Anyone who has a line on that, please drop me a comment. I'm avidly curious about this.

In the meantime, two articles that discuss the breaking events (login required):
Japanese Prime Minister Abe Will Resign (Washington Post)
Prime Japan's Prime Minister Resigns (Washington Post)

Comments

[reteva.livejournal.com]

Well, I don't think the CIA is going soft in this case. It's actually an irony, but the US encourages this kind of nationalism in Japan - because we're tired of footing the bill for their protection. We forbade them to mount a military after the end of World War II, and in exchange for that gave our pledge that we would guard them. Now - sixty years later - we're still doing that at tremendous cost and they're our close allies in Asia - practically the only one we have. So naturally, at this point, letting them run a nationalist agenda suits our purposes. We want them to militarize, and above all we want them to continue funding the refueling mission in the Indian Ocean. Abe's disastrous political career as prime minister was compromising that, and that's why I think the US (probably) brought pressure to bear on him to step down. Although the opposition party, which is much less nationalistic and much less in line with US wishes at this point, still claims they plan to bring the law down - I think the consensus view is that the law itself has a better shot without Abe than with him.

It's a fascinating situation.

[reteva.livejournal.com]

Unfortunately, I fear that time may prove you right. Our patterns of behavior vis-a-vis other nations are sadly transparent and stupidly fixed at this point. I had exactly the same thought that you did, regarding our current stance on Japan's future militarization. I personally feel that every nation has a right to build their own military in defense of themselves, but I'm sure that if we (the US) decide otherwise - as we have decided otherwise before - that things could go very badly indeed.

Time will tell.